Will Web 3.0 Change the World the Way the Original Internet Did?
It’s a fair question. There is a lot of talk around Web 3.0 and technologies around it (the metaverse, block chain, and so on). CEOs of public companies are announcing that they are focusing their efforts on what to do with Web 3.0… and investors are rewarding them when they do.
And just as many are afraid that this is the next bubble, the next set of technologies that will be hyped and forgotten.
In short, Silicon Valley executives and investors are either very excited…or experiencing some serious FOMO.
Product engineers are a bit of a “glass half full” bunch, yours truly included. There are quite a few of us who watched the once-in-a-generation life-changing technology of the original internet unfold. In hindsight, that offers some lessons we can draw from.
And with that perspective, we can determine just how quickly (or not) Web 3.0 technologies will prove to be truly transformational.
I plan on discussing just that in an upcoming series of articles, where I will take a deeper dive into the circumstances that make such innovation possible. The analogy with the original internet gives us a good structure for exploring those circumstances.
The Development of the Internet, from Darpa to Dot Com
For any groundbreaking tech trend to be truly transformal, there are few things that have to be true:
- There has to be a common, unifying goal
- The right environment (including leadership and infrastructure) for innovation has to be there
- There has to be clear value
Note that these things were not all in place at once, at once at the dawn of the internet. But they were all in place by the time the technology was poised for mass adoption. Indeed, I would argue that a technology won’t be widely adopted until these things are in place.
The Common Goal: Cold War Communication. Not many people are aware that the internet started as a cold war government program. Back then it was called ARPANET since it was developed by ARPA, the Advanced Research Projects Agency at the Department of Defense.
ARPANET had one overarching goal: To link computers at Pentagon-funded research institutions across the country. The connections needed to be both fast (as fast as telephone communication) and robust (meaning that there was no one “core” that could be knocked out, bringing the system to its knees).
This unifying goal helped shape the efforts of the many institutions and agencies involved. It drove requirements, constrained the space of possible solutions, and set a benchmark by which to measure performance.
The Right Environment for Innovation. There is no doubt that technologies like AR and blockchain are innovative. However, the Internet itself was developed to enable globe-spanning, secure communication (and not products). The researchers and governmental leaders involved were eager to share their knowledge and collaborate. In order to do this better, they cooperatively devised standards that allowed for interoperability and easy adoption.
The existing environment naturally led to innovation and problem-solving. Revolutionary technologies need the same kind of fertile soil if they are truly going to grow, and that includes full IP sharing amongst all stakeholders.
Clear Value. Ray Tomlinson, the inventor of the first email program back in 1971, said of his creation, “Email always seemed like something that anyone with a network connection would want…It had an organic origin, but as soon as the idea was there, everyone said, ‘Oh, I can do that.’” In other words, there was a clear need for people to send and receive messages across a network — and as soon as people saw how email worked, it was clear that the solution was a fit for what people actually wanted.
That’s a great lesson for any product. You should be able to show that product to many people and have the overwhelming response be “Oh, yes, that’s something I can use!” Aspirational products are fine, but to become widespread (and commercially viable), there needs to be an “aha!” moment on a personal level.
A Recipe for Game-Changing Technology
When we examine the viability of new technology, we should be asking these questions:
- Goal. Is there a clear goal that can unite the various actors involved with the technology? Are they all envisioning the same future?
- Environment. Is the leadership there? Are the incentives there? Are people willing to devise standards? How is success measured? What are the benchmarks? Most importantly, will that knowledge be shared equally in that environment for the betterment of the overall innovation?
- Value. Will a user immediately perceive the value of the technology the minute they see it? Will users immediately appreciate how it can make their own life easier?
In my articles to come, I want to delve a little more deeply into these exact questions.
